A new poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District shows Paige Cognetti leading Congressman Rob Bresnahan. The poll finds that Cognetti leads Bresnahan 46 percent to 45 percent, cementing the race’s status as a true toss-up. 

The poll also finds that Bresnahan is underwater and deeply unpopular with NEPA voters (38 percent favorable/45 percent unfavorable). 

While Paige’s campaign is gaining momentum and has clear room for growth, Bresnahan is already well known to voters and unpopular in a district that Trump carried by 9 points in 2024.

Key findings include:

Among the 57 percent of voters who recognize both candidates, her performance is even stronger, with a majority supporting Paige (53 percent).

Bresnahan is unpopular and already known, whereas Paige has room for growth. Currently, the congressman’s net favorability is underwater at -7 (38 percent favorable/45 percent unfavorable), and he is well known in the district (just 16 percent can’t rate him). More than twice as many voters are unfamiliar with Paige (38 percent can’t rate).

The environment is shifting in Paige’s favor. Despite the majority of likely voters in the district voting for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, they break evenly for supporting a generic Democratic vs. a generic Republican candidate for Congress (40 percent for the Democratic candidate vs. 41 percent the Republican candidate), and nearly a fifth of voters remain persuadable (19 percent).

The poll was conducted by Impact Research from June 8-11, among 500 likely 2026 general election voters in PA-08.

This poll follows race rating updates this quarter from Inside Elections and Cook Political Report, which both shifted the race toward Paige to “Toss Up.” In its update, Inside Elections cited Bresnahan’s “finances” and “health care issues,” while Cook Political Report noted Bresnahan’s “self-inflicted” wounds, including his “stock trades [that] have dogged him all cycle,” and Paige’s unique “political brand,” running for mayor as an independent in 2019 to take on the corrupt Democratic machine in Scranton.

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Scranton, PA