Unforced Errors and Election Odds

Bruce Ferguson
Posted 8/21/12

Will the governor’s missteps create an opening for a progressive reformer?

Andrew Cuomo must feel like he’s been run over by a truck. A few months ago he seemed invincible. Heading into this …

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Unforced Errors and Election Odds

Posted

Will the governor’s missteps create an opening for a progressive reformer?

Andrew Cuomo must feel like he’s been run over by a truck. A few months ago he seemed invincible. Heading into this fall’s election his campaign had more than $30 million on hand and there was no serious opposition in sight—Republican gubernatorial candidate, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, consistently trailed the governor by 30 points in the polls. A second term seemed assured.

But things began to go wrong at the Working Families Party convention where Cuomo faced an unexpectedly strong challenge from a political novice with the improbable name of Zephyr Teachout. In order to secure the WFP line on the ballot, the governor was forced to offer concessions to the progressive wing of his party. It was an embarrassment—and the first sign that Cuomo’s broad support might be wafer thin.

A few days after the WFP convention, Teachout announced that she’d challenge Cuomo in the Democratic primary. This should have been nothing more than a minor annoyance, but then came Moreland-gate.

In July, an explosive article in The New York Times revealed that Cuomo’s office had interfered with the Moreland Commission, which the governor himself had set up to root out corruption in Albany. The expose was bad enough, but Cuomo’s response made it worse. He avoided the press for days, then issued a lengthy written rebuttal that many readers found non-responsive and evasive. His claim that it was impossible for him to interfere with the commission “because it is mine. It is controlled by me” was reminiscent of Richard Nixon saying, “When the president does it, it’s not illegal.”

Members of the commission defended the governor, but this only fueled speculation that he was orchestrating his own defense. The U.S. Attorney investigating the scandal cautioned Cuomo about witness tampering. Suddenly Teachout, a Fordham law professor and reformer, began to look like an attractive alternative to a governor who could conceivably be indicted before the general election.

And Cuomo certainly didn’t help himself by trying to keep Teachout off the Democratic primary ballot. This reinforced his reputation as a bully and made some observers wonder why he was so afraid of a political unknown. A challenge to Teachout’s residency led to a three-day trial that brought much needed attention to her campaign. Teachout won in court, and in the court of public opinion. The New York Times scolded Cuomo for harassing Teachout and told him to start discussing the issues.

Then came the endorsements, or in Cuomo’s case, the lack of them. The New York State Teachers Union and the AFL-CIO both threw their support behind the state attorney general and comptroller, but snubbed Cuomo. Teachout racked up endorsements from the Public Employees Federation, the Sierra Club and the National Organization of Women. On Monday The New York Times declared it wouldn’t endorse either candidates—a decision that, in effect, put Teachout on an equal footing with the governor.

Donations from individuals (read voters) are also breaking heavily in Teachout’s favor. During the last two filing periods, her campaign received almost four times as many individual donations as the governor. Does all this mean that Cuomo might actually lose the Democratic primary on September 9? At least one political pro seems to think it’s a possibility—that’s Andrew Cuomo.

[Bruce Ferguson is chair of the Town of Callicoon Democratic Committee (Sullivan County), which has endorsed Zephyr Teachout.]

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