McGinty inches ahead of Toomey

Posted 8/21/12

PENNSYLVANIA — In the race for the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, Democratic challenger Katie McGinty has pulled ahead slightly of incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

In the October 26 to …

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McGinty inches ahead of Toomey

Posted

PENNSYLVANIA — In the race for the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, Democratic challenger Katie McGinty has pulled ahead slightly of incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

In the October 26 to November 1 period, all the polls showed McGinty up at last a couple of points, with Franklin and Marshall, possibly an outlier, showing her up 12 points.

Looking at various groups, more men said they supported Toomey than McGinty in a 47% to 41% split, while woman said they preferred the Democrat by a margin of 48% to 35%.

Among voters between the ages of 18 to 44, the split was 49% for McGinty and 32% for Toomey. For voters older than 44, the preference was 47% for Toomey and 41% for McGinty.

Black voters had a large preference for McGinty, with 73% support compared to just 5% for Toomey, and white voters split with 47% backing Toomey and 39% backing McGinty.

One of the big topics in this election as in many others around the country is immigration. In the poll, voters gave conflicting answers to questions on the topic.

Question: Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the U.S.?

They should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and eventually apply for citizenship—54%

They should be allowed to stay in the U.S., but not be allowed to apply for citizenship—11%

They should be required to leave the U.S.—35%

Question: Do you think a wall along the U.S. Mexico border is:

A good idea that can probably be completed—31%

A good idea that should be tried, even if it can’t be completed—19%

A bad idea—50%

Question: Generally, do you think immigrants coming to the United States make American society better or worse in the long run?

Better in the long run—44%

Worse in the long run—30%

Don’t have much of an effect one way or the other—26%

The same poll showed that among the presidential candidates, Democrat Hillary Clinton had 48%, Republican Donald Trump had 40%, Libertarian Gary Johnson received 5%, and Green Party Jill Stein had 2%.

The Pennsylvania Senate race has been one of the most closely watched races in the country, and the outcome will help determine if the Senate switches to Democratic control after the election. If that happens, Republicans will have less ability to influence who gets appointed to the Supreme Court.

With the stakes this high, outside spending in the race has been historically high, with spending on both sides estimated to reach $120 million before the race ends, the majority of that coming from outside groups.

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